DSC-TR-2026-014Technical Report
Civilizational Systems Outlook: 2026–2035
Office of Strategic Risk Assessment
A work of speculative fiction. The Department of Strategic Continuity is not a real government agency, and this is not a government website. About this project
CRF-A · Southern Nevada
Operational status
Operational
Initial operating capability reached 18 August 2026 with 18 MW of IT load installed in Data Hall A; full operating capability is planned for the third quarter of FY2027. (as of October 2026)
Continuity Research Facility Alpha (CRF-A) is the Department's principal high-performance computing site. It is managed by the Continuity Infrastructure Administration (CIA-DSC) and serves as a shared research resource for all five divisions. The facility occupies a desert site in southern Nevada chosen for its available transmission capacity, low cost of land, high solar resource and low humidity, which together favor dry heat rejection over evaporative cooling.
The site and a partially completed data hall were developed during the period of the Interagency Task Force on Civilizational Continuity (ITFCC) as a federal research computing project. Custody transferred to the Department in April 2026. CIA-DSC completed the installation of the primary system, ALPHA-1, over the following four months, and the facility reached initial operating capability (IOC) on 18 August 2026. Full operating capability (FOC), defined below, is planned for the third quarter of FY2027.
Facility Alpha is the computational anchor of the Continuity Infrastructure Initiative. It produced the 40,000-run ensemble behind the Civilizational Systems Outlook: 2026–2035 and hosts the controlled evaluation enclaves used by the Frontier System Evaluation Program. It is a research facility: it does not operate or control any external infrastructure, and its systems are not connected to the operational networks of any utility, carrier or agency.
Allocation of ALPHA-1 time is set each quarter by an allocation committee chaired by the Office of the Chief Scientist, with representation from each division. For FY2027 the allocation is weighted toward three workloads, which together account for about 85 percent of scheduled node-hours.
| Workload | Program | Share of node-hours | Principal resource demand |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSM production ensembles and sensitivity studies | ISMP, LTFP | 38% | FP64 throughput; ensemble scheduling |
| NCRP emulation benchmark suite and connectome reconstruction | NCRP | 31% | Low-precision throughput; parallel storage bandwidth |
| Frontier system evaluation enclaves | FSEP | 16% | Isolated accelerator partitions; audit logging |
| Methods development, archive verification and reserve | All | 15% | Mixed |
Facility Alpha runs production versions of the Integrated Civilizational Systems Model (ICSM), currently version 4.2, for the Integrated Systems Modeling Program. A full Outlook ensemble of 40,000 runs across 1,280 scenario configurations occupies roughly one-fifth of ALPHA-1 for about eleven days, including post-processing. The model description is published as DSC-TR-2026-003. Every production run is archived with its configuration, input data hashes and code version, so that any published result can be regenerated.
The Neural Continuity Research Program uses Facility Alpha for its emulation benchmark suite, which measures how well neuron-level models of small nervous systems reproduce recorded behavior and physiology. Current benchmarks operate at Emulation Fidelity Level 3 (EFL-3) for C. elegans and for partial Drosophila circuits. The facility also hosts reconstruction pipelines for synaptic-resolution imaging data, whose acquisition requirements are set out in DSC-TR-2026-009. Projections of the compute and energy required for mammalian- and human-scale emulation, which inform the facility’s long-range planning, appear in DSC-TR-2026-008. Those projections are requirements estimates, not commitments, and nothing at Facility Alpha emulates a human or mammalian brain.
The Office of Advanced Artificial Intelligence conducts structured evaluations of frontier computational systems in physically and logically isolated enclaves at Facility Alpha, following the methodology in DSC-TR-2026-007. Enclaves have no outbound network path; results leave the enclave only through a reviewed export process.
ALPHA-1 is a liquid-cooled system of 2,304 compute nodes, each with four accelerators and two host processors, installed in 72 cabinets in Data Hall A. Nodes are connected by a three-level fat-tree interconnect with 400 Gb/s per-accelerator injection bandwidth. At full load the system draws approximately 13.5 MW.
| Component | Configuration |
|---|---|
| Accelerators | 9,216 (2,304 nodes × 4) |
| Peak FP64 performance | ~1.1 exaFLOPS |
| Peak low-precision AI performance | ~38 exaFLOPS |
| Cabinets | 72, direct-to-chip liquid-cooled, ~190 kW each at peak |
| Interconnect | Three-level fat tree, 400 Gb/s per accelerator |
| Parallel file system | 410 PB usable, flash and disk tiers |
| Tape archive | 1.6 EB rated capacity, two libraries in separate fire zones |
| Measured sustained power at full load | ~13.5 MW |
Compute nodes are cooled by direct-to-chip cold plates on a warm-water loop with a design supply temperature of 32 °C. Heat is rejected to the atmosphere through closed-loop dry coolers. On the hottest days of the year, when ambient temperatures exceed the dry coolers’ approach limit, an adiabatic pre-cooling stage engages; it is expected to operate for fewer than 300 hours per year. The facility uses no cooling towers, and annual makeup water is a small fraction of what an evaporatively cooled facility of the same load would consume. The annual power usage effectiveness (PUE) target is 1.15.
Facility Alpha has a 42 MW contracted grid supply delivered over two independent high-voltage circuits. Storage, networking, cooling controls and building systems are carried by uninterruptible power supplies and standby generation sized at approximately 6 MW. Compute partitions are not on standby generation; during an extended grid outage they are checkpointed and shed in a defined order. Phase 2 adds an on-site 60 MW solar array with a 240 MWh battery plant, now under construction, which will supply a substantial share of daytime load and reduce peak grid draw.
Facility Alpha was sited and built under the applicable federal environmental review process, including surveys of desert habitat and cultural resources before the solar array footprint was cleared. Construction and operations follow applicable federal occupational safety, fire protection and hazardous materials requirements. The battery plant is being built with separated enclosures, thermal runaway detection and setbacks agreed with the regional fire authority.
Managed by the Continuity Infrastructure Administration.
| Date | Milestone | Status |
|---|---|---|
| November 2025 | ITFCC final report (ITFCC-2025-07) recommends a dedicated federal computing site for long-horizon systems modeling | Complete |
| April 2026 | Site and partially completed Data Hall A transferred to the Department; first ALPHA-1 cabinet group supports ICSM v4.0 baselining under early access | Complete |
| June 2026 | Installation of all 72 ALPHA-1 cabinets completed | Complete |
| July 2026 | ALPHA-1 acceptance testing completed | Complete |
| 18 August 2026 | Initial operating capability (18 MW IT load installed) | Complete |
| September 2026 | ICSM v4.2 production ensemble (40,000 runs) completed for the 2026 Outlook | Complete |
| Q2 FY2027 | Data Hall B power and cooling commissioning | Planned |
| Q3 FY2027 | Full operating capability (30 MW design IT load) | Planned |
| Q4 FY2027 | Phase 2 solar array and battery plant energized | Planned |
| 2031–2034 (planned) | Human-scale emulation compute demonstrator for NCRP Phase III, subject to program and RERB/ESAB review | Planned |
DSC-TR-2026-014Technical Report
Office of Strategic Risk Assessment
DSC-TR-2026-009Technical Report
Directorate of Neural Continuity
DSC-TR-2026-008Technical Report
Continuity Infrastructure Administration
DSC-TR-2026-007Technical Report
Office of Advanced Artificial Intelligence
DSC-TR-2026-003Technical Report
Office of Strategic Risk Assessment