The Office of Strategic Risk Assessment has released DSC-TR-2026-014, the Department’s first Civilizational Systems Outlook, presenting ensemble projections of systemic stress through 2035 from the Integrated Civilizational Systems Model.
WASHINGTON — The Department of Strategic Continuity today released Civilizational Systems Outlook: 2026–2035 (DSC-TR-2026-014), the first report in the Office of Strategic Risk Assessment’s Outlook series. The report was prepared by the Office of Strategic Risk Assessment (OSRA) with the Office of Advanced Artificial Intelligence, the Office of Long-Term Systems Research and the Continuity Infrastructure Administration (CIA-DSC).
The Outlook presents results from version 4.2 of the Integrated Civilizational Systems Model (ICSM), which represents eleven coupled global systems. The model was run as an ensemble of 40,000 simulations across 1,280 scenario configurations, and results are reported in terms of the Composite Systemic Stress Index (CSSI), a measure on a scale of 0 to 100. The Department’s 2026 nowcast places the index at approximately 54, compared with approximately 46 in 2020.
Principal finding
The Department’s models indicate that in 71 percent of ensemble runs (central estimate; 90 percent interval, 58 to 82 percent), the index enters what the report defines as the systemic breakdown regime, a CSSI of 70 or above sustained for 24 months, before 1 January 2035. The median year of entry among those runs is 2033.
The report defines severe civilizational breakdown as a sustained, multi-region loss of the capacity to maintain critical infrastructure, food distribution and governance at 2020 levels. It does not describe, and the model does not project, human extinction. The ensemble result is a distribution of model outcomes under stated assumptions, not a prediction of events.
The principal drivers identified are the tight coupling between AI-dependent infrastructure control and energy systems; the potential for synchronized shocks to food systems; concentration of supply chains in semiconductors and critical minerals; financial contagion; and the erosion of institutional capacity. Climate change acts in the model as a stress multiplier across these pathways rather than as a sole driver.
“This is a model result, and we have tried to state its uncertainty as plainly as its central estimate,” said the Director of the Office of Strategic Risk Assessment. “The value of the Outlook lies less in any single number than in what it shows about which connections between systems matter most, and therefore where better understanding and better design would make the greatest difference.”
Review and limitations
The ICSM version 4.2 was reviewed by the Department’s independent Model Review Panel. The Panel’s record includes two dissenting opinions concerning the calibration of the model’s Governance and Social Cohesion module, which are summarized in the report’s discussion of limitations. The report also sets out the assumptions to which the headline result is most sensitive.
Nature of this report
The Outlook is a research assessment. The Department of Strategic Continuity does not issue public-safety guidance, and nothing in the report is a warning, instruction or recommendation for individual action.
An overview of the assessment, including definitions and frequently asked questions, is available on the Risk Assessment page. The full report is available in the publications library. Media inquiries may be submitted through the Contact page.